Long Beach Predictions and Prognostications: Damned Statistical Edition

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IRR lets readers in on a sizable statistical secret.

A significant part of the reason we’ve been so successful in our IndyCar predictions the last few years is simple mathematics. Or – more precisely – damned statistics. It’s a pity we haven’t been putting the information to better use by wagering boatloads in Vegas.

“There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

No, we’re not a stats site as our readers well know. It being tax time, we’re particularly afraid of figures at present. Lord knows there’re enough purely statistical destinations out there and – other than this article – stats and humor go together about like NPR and Alabama Slammers. They’re just too damned different in their purposes.

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This week’s special prediction for the Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach is another Penske pavement party. The team’s won a majority of races going back years – not to mention poles, championships, et cetera – with defending champ Newgarden’s win at Phoenix merely serving as the most recent example. When it comes to pole, semi-retiree Helio started first in SoCal the last three races. By anyone’s calculation, the team’s peerless.

Pole sitter admittedly is a toughie as we discussed in the preview, but even with Helio out of the picture odds overwhelmingly point to one particular three car team. Statistically, Continue reading

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Long Beach Preview: Up in the Air

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IndyCar’s annual whiff of SoCal’s insalubrious smog arrives Sunday and the pending outcome is as up in the air as a juggler’s balls.

Hinch, Pags and Dixie have won the last three Grans Prix, by far the series’ most atmospheric street race. That’s three different teams represented atop the podium since 2015. Go back far enough and some rather wispy outfits indeed have triumphed by the shore, including Ed Carpenter Racing. On a street course. Twice. That’s certainly some rarefied air out west.

Bourdais is a three time winner, stratospherically taking three in a row during the most polluted days of the split. Understandably though, after Phoenix his pit crew may still be a bit sore at him this weekend. Even Will “hot air” Power vaporized the entire field twice at the Beach, though that was several years ago. Heck, Sato won there for Foyt in 2013. Tellingly, it was under caution and the tentative team‘s last win.

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Unassuming Ed Jones stole the show last year with a sixth place finish and second consecutive top ten to start his career. Continue reading

Phoenix Race Review: Take Cover! Edition

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American gunslinger Josef Newgarden obliterated his opposition outside Phoenix Saturday night, leaving a trail of IndyCar carnage stretching clear to Canada. As bad as it was for Robby Wickens, it was Coyne crew members who again got the worst of it.

The race started with an all day-glo – and all French – front row at what Townsend Bell called “this hot, nasty track.” Then again, it almost didn’t. Surprise pole sitter Sebastien Bourdais‘ car stopped dead on pit lane, requiring the help of Robert Wickens’ – or “Wiggins” as TBell calls him – crew to refire his Honda. It wouldn’t be the last issue SeBass had on pit road during the evening.

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Photo from indycar.com

RHR and Marco went high at the start and gained several spots while a now functioning Bourdais pulled away from Pags. Wickens gained a position and joined the top five as the Frenchmen at the front battled early traffic. A hard charging Rossi challenged Pags for the pass before nearly losing it on the apron and drifting high up the track. Narrowly avoiding disaster, he wasn’t done yet.

On lap 41 the first of only two yellows arrived when PFitti got high in turn four and rudely met the wall. Emo’s grandson was first out in his first ever race. During the initial round of pit stops SeBass slid wildly into his pit box, hitting his left front tire changer in an ugly scene. Continue reading

Phoenix Predictions and Prognostications: Critical Edition

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Following a decade long absence and two run of the mill races since its return, IndyCar’s upcoming foray to Phoenix could make or break the series there.

Fully swathed in the spirit of dazzling open wheel oval track racing – and knowing the series’ crucial need of more of it – here’s our interpretive soothsaying for the season’s first egg shaped track.

Critical – from the Latin criticus, referring to a disease related crisis.

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Our special prediction is when the Saturday night race finally does arrive, no matter how it goes, the racing will be criticized. If it isn’t the drivers apologizing all over themselves again, it’ll be the so-called writers. If not them, then the segment of fans who somehow find fault in Continue reading

Handicapping The Rookies: Greenhorns Galore, Part 1

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Previewing the 2018 IndyCar season from the perspective of those nine new drivers with a combined total experience of the average couch sitting race fan. Alarmingly, rookies will make up a full third of the IndyCar field this season.

Featured first are a pair of teams – one new, one not – opting for rookie teammates of all things. Talk about letting the children lead!

Rene Binder is the first Austrian IndyCar driver since Joseph Jagersberger in 1911, who started the inaugural Indianapolis 500, then called the International 500-Mile Sweepstakes Race. Binder’s Juncos Racing team is also brand spanking new, moving up to the big league from Indy Lights, where they won the championship last year. The 26 year old will share the partial season ride with his rookie teammate and Lights champ, Kyle Kaiser. Why Binder, you ask? Because he brings sponsorship with him in the form of Binderholz.

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Though his surname may make one think of Austria, Kaiser’s the American part of Juncos Racing and has enjoyed some success. Like Binder he’ll have a part time schedule sharing the ride for half the team’s eight race schedule, including both oval tracks. The soon to be 22 year old has no sponsorship as of yet, Continue reading

Indy Grand Prix Preview: Pagenaud, the Destroyer

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Pags and the Penskes have been destroying it lately, eliciting widespread fear – and worse.

“Paranoia, the Destroyer” as the Kinks artfully put it runs rampant throughout IndyCar. Specifically, Penske paranoia – a creeping, deep seeded fear that Pagenaud the Destroyer and crew will win every remaining blasted race.

You blow it all with paranoia.

You’re so insecure, you self destroyer.

Pagenaud has won a lot lately, so much so that we’re getting tired of his winning. He won the previous race either way you look at it – both at Phoenix and last season’s Indy GP. It’s starting to become habitual for the Frenchman. His seemingly unending tear dates back over a year now, as he absolutely ran away with it at Phoenix, just like 2016’s procession around the IMS infield.

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Photo from indycar.com

Feelin’ guilty, feelin’ scared.

Hidden cameras everywhere!

It’s no wonder why the other teams are fearful of the Cap’n’s outfit. Continue reading

Phoenix Race Review: Single Handed

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Photo from twitter.com

J.R. Hildebrand gave fans someone to root for other than those paradoxical Penskes in a flawed though mildly entertaining show in the desert.

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Photo from edcarpenterracing.com

Simon Pagenaud and the Penskes prevailed going away as the first oval and night race of the year looked like 2016 in microcosm. Thankfully there were other stories, or rather a single other story, on NBCSN. If we heard about it once, we heard it a thousand times. Hildebrand‘s comeback race from a broken hand at Long Beach – requiring “a plate and eight screws” as Paul Tracy read from a card – saw him finish an impressive third. It was Ed Carpenter Racing‘s best result in some time and a remarkable feat by the team’s shorthanded newcomer.

We couldn’t help but think of the sound of one hand clapping during the race, as the crowd looked sparse on television and the Saturday night time slot is challenging for ratings to begin with. After seeing the start though, maybe that’s not all bad.

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The race began embarrassingly with a first lap caution as Mikhail Aleshin lost it and spun in turn two collecting Marco, Rahal, Chilton and Bourdais – Hondas all. Continue reading

Phoenix Predictions and Prognostications: Sponsors Needed

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Several high profile drivers and teams remain without solid sponsorship for the season’s first oval race – a big deal around here – including the previous winner. As true IndyCar racing arrives with Saturday night’s fiesta of fast in Phoenix, it’s the lack of big, big money that rightfully has some fans concerned.

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Empty sidepods are less than desirable, especially when they adorn a super team that sometimes tends not to finish races and another that barely cracks the top ten (except for Dixon). Scott enjoyed the thirty ninth win of his storied career last year in the desert, yet three races in still hasn’t found a permanent replacement for the dearly departed Target. How 100th Indy 500 winner Alexander Rossi’s car remains a blank slate is equally incomprehensible. In the spirit of ovular optimism, our special prediction is that this dearth of signage on quality competitors won’t last long.

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Speaking of money, Helio Castro-Neves Continue reading

Scott Dixon’s Helmet, Or: A Tale of Two Pities

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An embarrassing equipment failure at Sonoma typified Scott Dixon‘s season with Chip Ganassi Racing.

IndyCar’s defending champion suffered mightily on Sunday, floundering at a track he’d won on multiple times. Already losing his primary sponsor immediately after the race, Dixon limped home to a seventeenth place finish. Equipment issues and slow pit service stemming from a faulty wire doomed his chances at the largely passing-free Sonoma Raceway. It was truly a pity.

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With a malfunctioning radio and no communication with his team, Dixon was forced to swap helmets on his second pit stop. Continue reading

Ed Carpenter Needs To Finish A Race

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IndyCar’s only owner/driver, Hulman-George family member Ed Carpenter needs to finish a race – much less win one – along with accomplishing a number of other important items.

As fans of Ed – he’s an underdog, American, and actually defends IndyCar instead of rudely ripping or apologizing for the racing – it pains us to write this. However, IndyCar fans do just love to bitch. One for one so far this year with his crash at Phoenix – after a whopping four DNFs in only six oval starts in 2015 – Eddie needs to refocus on his driving before climbing back into the car. As you may have guessed, he managed precisely no top fives on the season either, coming off an impressive three in 2014. Also troubling, Carpenter’s crashed out of the last two Indy 500s.

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Obviously he’s the outfit’s owner, but come on. He hasn’t won a race since Texas in 2014, which was only the third victory of his career. That’s in a hundred and sixty career starts, spread out over fourteen seasons. Put another way, if he keeps it up Ed’s record will approach Marco bad.  And that’d be a shame.

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Carpenter committed a cardinal sin Continue reading