102nd Indy 500 Predictions and Prognostications: What Are the Odds?

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Wheels are spinning at Indianapolis Motor Speedway – and at IRR world headquarters. As the world’s greatest race approaches, we’re feeling lucky.

The special prediction of this year’s 500 is race fans will be waist deep in wagering at the Speedway and around the country. The recent Supreme Court ruling on sports books almost assures this, bringing betting out of the grandstands and into the luxury suites, so to speak. With our recent spate of predictions success, we outta start charging for this info.

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Our pick for pole on Sunday is Josef Newgarden, our perennial prediction for series champ. The odds on JoNew winning the 500 are 8 – 1, behind only 100th 500 winner Alexander Rossi at 5 – 1. Incidentally, defending winner Takuma Sato’s odds are a lot longer at 25 – 1, same as rookie Robert Wickens and Ed Jones. Speaking of a gamble, the odds on Danica are 30 – 1.

First out of the 500 will be Continue reading

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102nd Indy 500 Practice Day 4: Fast Friday Flop

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Image from fox59.com

Fast Friday lacked urgency, action and speed, though on the bright side the weather cooperated and nobody got hurt. At least not too badly. Maybe drivers and teams feel they’ve adequately prepared the past three days of practice for the four most nerve wracking laps of their lives, or maybe they’re saving all the best moments for this weekend – and next. When the whole world’ll be watching.

Like yesterday, the fastest speeds came early in the running rather than late, an up is down, black is white scenario if ever there were one. Marco “practice warrior” Andretti managed to again turn in the quickest of the tow speeds at 231.8 mph, followed closely by Robert Wickens, Ed Carpenter, Oriol Servia and Will Power. Danica was 20th. The added turbo boost only raised speeds a mile per hour or so, but for some reason the series does it anyway. The fastest non-tow speed belonged to Will Power with a lap of 229.7 mph, trailed by his teammates Josef Newgarden and Pags as well as Ed Carpenter.

Another of the day’s flops occurred shortly before 3:00 p.m. James Davison lost it in turn 2 and spun A.J. Foyt Racing’s gorgeous, red third car, slamming the wall and wrecking it pretty substantially, destroying the gear box. He suffered a banged up knee, but was otherwise all right and cleared to attempt qualifying tomorrow – Continue reading

102nd Indy 500 Practice Day 1: Slow and Easy Edition

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Photo from espn.go.com

Nobody piled it up, but nobody went very fast either in the first official practice sessions for the Indianapolis 500. While some fifteen miles per hour from the record, the new cars sure looked sharp flying around the old oval.

Update: Fresh off retirement, a reinvigorated Helio shot to the top of the speed charts in happy hour with a lap of 224.66 mph in his quest for number four. The order shuffled somewhat as many cars tested handling in traffic. That’s wise with so many rookies in the field. Ed Carpenter ended up second and had the fastest non tow lap at over 221 mph. Jay Howard jumped to third late during happy hour as nearly fourteen hundred laps were turned on the day. He was followed by Dixon, Marco and Sage.

More diva than driver Danica sat 8th quick when lightening in the area temporarily ended on track activities rather abruptly just after 4:00 pm local time. She wound up 18th.

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Marco “practice warrior” Andretti turned in the fastest lap prior to the weather delay of just over 224 mph, as speeds were down all day. Over a mile per hour slower were Continue reading

IndyCar Grand Prix Race Review: Bush League Stuff

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Image from youtube

When winner Will Power’s accent degenerates to the point where it’s more affectation than Aussie, you know you’ve landed in IndyCar’s outback. The predictable and unpalatable Penske win from pole was the Cap’n’s 200th in the sport. It was also, to quote Quintana, “bush league stuff.”

During ABC’s unremarkable, out-the-door-and-it-shows pre-race show, Scott Goodyear pontificated that he wasn’t sure his fellow Canuck Robert Wickens “is a rookie.” Well Mr. also-ran, we’re positive that he is. Next, Power predicted a good race with “lots of passing,” all merely proving that he’s a better driver than prognosticator.

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The GP’s Great Leader Tony George gave the command to start engines while in the booth they droned on about the perils of turn 1. Upon taking the green they went at least four wide in what’s hopefully a harbinger of things to come in the 500, going hard into the sharp right hander that is the GP’s first turn. By turn 2 there was the predictable trouble on track.

Upon first glance and according to the booth, ECR’s rookie Jordan King hit Pags, sending both off course and into the gravel pit. After starting seventh, Pags was able to keep it going and bring it home to a respectable eighth place showing. On the same opening lap, Pigot also ran off course after hitting a curb and wildly flying through the air, hitting an unfortunate Sato after landing and bouncing. Poor Spencer was penalized for the avoidable contact, but soldiered on to finish 15th. Meanwhile, his teammate King got stuck in the gravel trap, bringing out the first caution of the day.

Cutting through the ABC crew’s confusion, replays showed Pags only went wide after being hit by his teammate Helio, who is as you may have heard fresh off retirement. Only then, and after checking up, Continue reading

Barber Race Review: Golden Showers Edition

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Showers of various sorts were the major current flowing through Barber the last couple days and an odd Monday finish left fans feeling less than quenched. The weekend was a mess for most, although the heavy showers proved golden for Josef Newgarden, winning for the third time on his home track.

Pouring rain Sunday halted the race after 23 laps, run largely under caution or at caution speeds. Not one but two red flags also appeared, finally delivering the drenched drivers from their soaked cars. Safety was the concern as visibility was nearly non-existent, although that probably should have been clear after the first few laps rather than requiring multiple red flags.

Photo from indycar.com

A single file start under caution proved anticlimactic, or would have if anyone could have seen it. The race went green on the second lap and cars tiptoed around the near constant corners, sliding as they went. The plumes they emitted made viewing – much less driving – extremely difficult.

Marco spun out on the second green flag lap, nearly hitting oncoming traffic a couple of times before finally rejoining the fray. Unfazed by the showers, Newkid opened up a sizable lead over Power, Bourdais, RHR and Dixon as Hinchcliffe dropped back. Continue reading

Barber Predictions and Prognostications: Alabama Getaway

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As IndyCar teams, drivers and fans – including a number of our more intrepid followers – make their way south for a race weekend outside Birmingham, a serious question arises. When it comes to vacation destinations, obviously there are a helluva lot better options than central Alabama. For example, almost anywhere else – save for Detroit. So what’s the attraction, we wonder? It can’t be the statuary.

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Photo from the web

Nor is it likely to be the racing, which takes us to our special prediction for this purpose-built motorbike track. Don’t expect cautions to free viewers from monotony jail like at Long Beach, as the wide open spaces of Barber are almost always amenable to clean, green flag racing. Translation – a single file procession at interstate speeds. See Pags’ win from pole in 2016 for proof. Want more evidence? IndyCar’s last three at the quirky facility have averaged fewer than two cautions per race, although unusually 2014 saw five yellows. Talk about flighty!

Pick for pole is positively Penske, as it’s predictably their plunder. The Cap’n’s crew have purloined the last four in a row at BMSP, with Helio, Pags and Power all getting in on the action. Continue reading

Barber Preview: Broken Record Edition

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More records are likely to be broken as IndyCar screeches into Alabama this weekend, the series’ third consecutive race since inexplicably skipping an entire month after the St. Pete opener. Sorry to sound like a broken record, but Team Penske’s success at Barber is nearly as unblemished as a mint condition Beatles vinyl still in the original packaging.

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Josef “new American hero” Newgarden (according to Robin Miller) has swiped two of the last three at the deep south’s premier motorbike track, an undeniably impressive album of work. Continue reading

Long Beach Race Review: Nose-cam Slam Edition

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Photo from twitter.com

On an AA kinda day Californian Alexander Rossi won in utterly jack booted fashion, but the advent, added entertainment value and absurd level of abuse meted out to NBCSN’s nose-cam stole the show at Long Beach.

An above average four caution flags fell at just the right times helping out the racing immensely. Without them, Rossi might’ve lapped the entire field. Twice. One of the pole sitter’s biggest competitors was knocked out prior to the first turn, sadly along with a cherished nose-cam. Thank God they had plenty of the tiny cameras in reserve to significantly enhance the coverage.

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Photo from indycar.com

Ragin’ Graham Rahal ran into Simon Pagenaud from behind on the first lap, sending him spinning into the wall and ending his day. Ryan Hunter-Reay also got caught up in the fracas banging into Dixon, suffering some front wing damage and more importantly destroying the first nose-cam of the day, though happily not before it provided excellent views of the action. Rahal was rightly slapped by race control with a drive through penalty, later apologizing to Pags after battling all the way back to finish fifth.

The restart on lap five set a pattern of Rossi opening up a lead and pulling away. Continue reading

Long Beach Predictions and Prognostications: Damned Statistical Edition

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IRR lets readers in on a sizable statistical secret.

A significant part of the reason we’ve been so successful in our IndyCar predictions the last few years is simple mathematics. Or – more precisely – damned statistics. It’s a pity we haven’t been putting the information to better use by wagering boatloads in Vegas.

“There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

No, we’re not a stats site as our readers well know. It being tax time, we’re particularly afraid of figures at present. Lord knows there’re enough purely statistical destinations out there and – other than this article – stats and humor go together about like NPR and Alabama Slammers. They’re just too damned different in their purposes.

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This week’s special prediction for the Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach is another Penske pavement party. The team’s won a majority of races going back years – not to mention poles, championships, et cetera – with defending champ Newgarden’s win at Phoenix merely serving as the most recent example. When it comes to pole, semi-retiree Helio started first in SoCal the last three races. By anyone’s calculation, the team’s peerless.

Pole sitter admittedly is a toughie as we discussed in the preview, but even with Helio out of the picture odds overwhelmingly point to one particular three car team. Statistically, Continue reading

Long Beach Preview: Up in the Air

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IndyCar’s annual whiff of SoCal’s insalubrious smog arrives Sunday and the pending outcome is as up in the air as a juggler’s balls.

Hinch, Pags and Dixie have won the last three Grans Prix, by far the series’ most atmospheric street race. That’s three different teams represented atop the podium since 2015. Go back far enough and some rather wispy outfits indeed have triumphed by the shore, including Ed Carpenter Racing. On a street course. Twice. That’s certainly some rarefied air out west.

Bourdais is a three time winner, stratospherically taking three in a row during the most polluted days of the split. Understandably though, after Phoenix his pit crew may still be a bit sore at him this weekend. Even Will “hot air” Power vaporized the entire field twice at the Beach, though that was several years ago. Heck, Sato won there for Foyt in 2013. Tellingly, it was under caution and the tentative team‘s last win.

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Photo from racer.com

Unassuming Ed Jones stole the show last year with a sixth place finish and second consecutive top ten to start his career. Continue reading